Pot Odds are Overrated
Sunday, October 4th, 2009
Whether you enjoy playing free poker or in real money games, one thing is for sure - you’ve heard the expression “pot odds.” When you first heard this term, you probably didn’t want to be bothered with it; the game of poker was too much fun to be made into a math lesson. Then, as time went on, you realized that pot odds were something you shouldn’t ignore. The irony is that sometimes less really is more.
That’s right. Sometimes it’s best to not be educated. Pot odds make sense on the surface, but let’s look at them in the long run. Say, for instance, that you’re on the button and the player in first position raises to $12 in a 1/2 game. You’re holding 10/8 off-suit. Your first intention is to fold, but three people call the raise. That means the pot is up to $48 ($51 if you include the blinds). If no one in the small or big blind raises, you will be risking $12 to win $48 and acting last. Pretty good, right? Not so fast.
Whether it’s poker tournaments or a cash games, most players think these are great odds. What they’re not calculating are reverse implied odds.
Let’s keep it simple. In most cases, you won’t hit your hand with cards like 10/8. That’s usually $12 down the drain. In some extremely rare cases, you will win the hand ($51); if you play the hand very well, you might win more. The third scenario is the most dangerous one. What if the flop comes 10, 10, Q? This is a hand you can’t get away from, and this is where most players lose the majority of their money when they play poker with marginal cards.
There are several scenarios that will cause you to get felted. One is that the player in first position is holding QQ. There’s a decent chance of that considering he raised six times the big blind in first position. Another possibility is that he’s holding J/10. You’re out-kicked! Of course, K/J and flush draws can also be dangerous.
There are times when you think you want to hit the flop, but are actually up against higher value cards. These are the situations you must avoid. Anyone can win with good cards in poker. The key is not to lose with marginal hands. Fight with high quality cards only!
